Hawks hand over power and doves take the upper position! Will the Fed’s voting rights change next year?

Source: Cailian Association

  Cailian News on December 22nd (edited by Xiaoxiang)After taking the fastest interest rate hike in more than 40 years this year, next year is actually a very delicate year for the Fed: on the one hand, the important task of the Fed to curb high inflation has not been completely completed, and the current interest rate hike cycle may take at least 2-3 interest rate hikes; On the other hand, the risk that the US economy will fall into recession next year is increasing day by day, and the Fed urgently needs to find a new balance in the face of the expectation of interest rate cuts that continue to breed in the market.

  This also makes the personnel changes of the Federal Reserve next year, especially the change of the voting rights of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), gradually become the focus of many people in the industry at the end of this year.

  Since the interest rate meeting in July this year, FOMC has been in a rare "full" state for many years. Among the 12 voting committees in total, the chairman, vice-chairman and chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of new york are the "Big Three", and five other Fed directors are permanent voting committees-they have the right to vote every year, while the remaining four voting committees rotate among the remaining 11 local Fed presidents.

  thereforeNext year’s "change of blood" within the Federal Reserve will focus on the changes in the voting rights of these four regional Fed presidents, as follows:

Next year will beGet the right to voteGoolsbee, President of Chicago Fed; Huck, President of Philadelphia Fed; Logan, President of Dallas Fed; Kashkali, President of Minneapolis Fed.

Next year will beSurrender the right to voteDuring the year, the voting committees were: St. Louis Fed President Brad, Cleveland Fed President Meister, Kansas City Fed President George and Boston Fed President Collins.

  Hawks hand over power and doves take the upper position?

  Judging from the long-standing position of the above-mentioned officials, the extent of the change in voting rights next year is actually quite large in recent years. We can divide it in detail by the following picture of Bank of America’s Federal Reserve Eagle pigeon release:

  First of all, among the four people who will get the right to vote next year, goolsbee will replace retired Evans as the chairman of the Chicago Fed in January next year. Evans is one of the most dovish officials in the Fed at present, and goolsbee is likely to inherit him.dovePosition. Please refer to our previous report for the relevant biographical information about goolsbee.

  Huck and Logan are two relatively speaking presidents of the Federal Reserve.middle-of-the-roader(Of course, the degree of eagles and pigeons is still slightly different, please refer to the chart for details). Logan said in November that fighting inflation "has a long way to go". Huck said last month that he expected officials to slow down the rate hike and eventually keep it at a restrictive level for some time.

  Of these four people, the mosthawksMaybe it’s Kashkali. Last month, he said that he didn’t believe that inflation had peaked, and that he "didn’t see many signs of economic cooling". However, Kashkali is a special person-he changed from the original "pigeon king" within the Federal Reserve to a hawkish official this year. It is unknown whether his position will be repeated when he really holds the right to vote in the future.

  On the whole, among the four newly elected officials-all from the Eagle and Pigeon camp, the dovish atmosphere may be a little stronger. In fact, if we only look at the distribution of the new "upper" four voting committees, the position of the eagle pigeon may be at most four or six, which is not too unbalanced.

  But,In fact, there is a contrast between "fear" in everything: officials who have newly won the right to vote may not be very pigeons, but there are too many hawks who have "handed over power".

  As shown in the above picture,Among the four voting committees that will hand over their voting rights next year, Brad, Meister and George are all hawks within the Fed at present.Although Collins can be classified as a dove camp, on the whole, the momentum of the eagle pigeon camp will be extremely obvious next year!

  Anna Wong, an economist who has studied the Fed, said, "Overall, in 2023, FOMC will join two new dove voting committees, which may further expand the influence of doves in the decision-making process. We believe that half of the 12 voting committees of the FOMC in 2023 may belong to doves, while this year there are only four. "

  Will the Fed’s voting rights change?

  Predictably, at the beginning of next year, the substantial impact of the above-mentioned changes in voting rights of the Federal Reserve is not expected to be obvious.Because at least on the issue of continuing to raise interest rates early next year, the differences between hawks and doves in the Fed are actually very small at present-everyone knows that the Fed has not completed the heavy responsibility of curbing high inflation.

  The bitmap of the Federal Reserve in December shows that almost all officials believe that the target interest rate of the Federal Reserve will exceed 5% by the end of next year.

  Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Piper Sandler & Co., an investment company, pointed out that "the new committee composition in 2023 seems to be more dovish than at present. However, the position of the Committee is still very unified. I think this indicates that no matter who has the right to vote, the threshold for the Fed to stop at a lower peak interest rate or cut interest rates in 2023 is very high. "

  However, the problem is that the current situation will not be eternal.

  As we mentioned after the Fed’s resolution last week, the Fed’s previous bitmap predictions have always been known for their changeability-next year will be no exception. At that time, the real test may come when inflation falls further and the pace of economic recession is approaching.

Note: The black line is the trend chart of real interest rate change, and the other dotted lines are the trends predicted by each dot matrix.

  Here, we can actually share another "dry goods" chart with investors-historically, the Fed was not completely "aware of the recession". In the last four recession cycles, except for the special reasons of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve took interest rate cuts in advance a few months before the recession.

  At present, the probability that the US economy will fall into recession next year is obviously not low. The latest monthly survey of economists by the media this month shows that most economists expect that rising interest rates will lead to economic recession, and the unemployment rate will rise from 3.7% last month to 4.9% in early 2024.

  Once the economy shows signs of recession in the middle of next year or earlier, it is likely to attract the attention of dovish officials who are more concerned about the maximum employment goal, and then trigger their opposition to the austerity policy. Some people in the industry have predicted that although there are few objections from the Fed under Powell-there were only two dissenting voices in eight interest rate meetings this year, the complicated situation after the change of voting rights in 2023 may lead to more dissenting voices.

  Perli pointed out, "If the unemployment rate climbs to a level higher than the natural unemployment rate next year, we may see the dissent of some dove officials; Of course, if inflation continues to remain high, then objections may not come soon, and there may not be more than one or two. Powell will still be able to manage FOMC very effectively. "

  Judging from the latest pricing in the interest rate market, traders now expect that the Fed’s benchmark interest rate will peak at around 4.84% in the first half of next year, and then cut interest rates to around 4.37% before the end of the year. The market interest rate pricing is obviously more dovish than the Fed’s December bitmap. This also indicates thatThe market still expects that the Fed will never go all the way to the end next year …

Reporting/feedback

The new Jetta VS5 and Jetta VS7 will be launched on May 20th.

  [car home Information] Recently, we learned from relevant channels that the new model (|) and the new Jetta VS7 will be launched on May 20th. Previously, the pre-sale price of the new Jetta VS5 was 87,900-114,900 yuan, and the pre-sale price of the new Jetta VS7 was 105,900-134,900 yuan. The two new cars have been fully upgraded in appearance and interior.

Home of the car

Home of the car

  In terms of appearance, the details of the new Jetta VS5 front grille are optimized, and a "Y-shaped carved armor" chrome grille is added. At the same time, the front enclosure is also completely new, and the overall sense of movement is more prominent. The fog lights on both sides have also become Y-shaped. At the same time, the new car has added two body colors: Ethereum Red and Aegean Blue.

Home of the car

  As for the interior, the new Jetta VS5 is wrapped in a large area of soft material, and equipped with J-Link brand-new mobile phone interconnection system (supporting CarPlay), EPB electronic handbrake, Autohold automatic parking, ACC adaptive cruise, Front Assist pre-collision system (including CEB city emergency braking) and other configurations.

Home of the car

  In appearance, like the new Jetta VS5, the new Jetta VS7 is also integrated into the Y-shaped design language, but the visual effect is completely different from that of VS5, and the new car adopts a more concise design idea. The tail of the new Jetta VS7 also uses a penetrating Y-shaped rear reflector. In terms of new car color, the new car has two new body colors: Haibeijin and Pacific Blue.

Home of the car

Home of the car

  In terms of interior, the new Jetta VS7 adopts a brand-new color matching soft bag seat with exquisite stitching design; A sliding curtain is added to the auxiliary plate cup holder; The 360 panoramic reversing image system is upgraded, and the function of displaying the door opening and closing state is added; In ACC/AEB interface, users can directly click to switch on and off the air conditioner and adjust the temperature; Equipped with an 8-inch LCD screen and J-Connect car networking (including CarPlay/CarLife). At the same time, the new Jetta VS7 is also equipped with ESP vehicle electronic stability system, FRONT ASSIST pre-collision system (including CEB urban emergency braking function) and other safety configurations.

  In terms of power, the two models continue to be equipped with EA211 1.4T engine with a maximum power of 150 HP (110kW), and the transmission system is matched with a 5-speed manual or 6-speed automatic manual transmission. (Text/car home Qin Chao)

Each has its own emphasis on tailoring the employment of graduates in colleges and universities around the country.

  Beijing, 5 July (Reporter Li Dan) According to the statistics of the Ministry of Education, the number of college graduates nationwide is expected to reach 11.58 million in 2023, an increase of 820,000. From May to August this year, the Ministry of Education continued to carry out the "100-day sprint" for the employment of college graduates in 2023, and various universities in various places introduced their own employment guidance policies to help graduates find jobs. From "face-to-face" to "screen-to-screen", the education system builds a good job-seeking platform for graduates and realizes accurate promotion of high-quality jobs.

  The Ministry of Education has actively promoted the strategic action of digitalization of education, upgraded the original platform to "National Employment Service Platform for College Students", and created a "full-time, intelligent" platform for 24 hours and 365 days to provide graduates and employers with better "internet plus Employment" service. During the employment promotion week for college graduates in 2023, the platform held 14 online recruitment events intensively, with more than 15,000 employers participating and providing over 800,000 job information.

  Colleges and universities all over the country are carrying out offline recruitment activities such as "visiting enterprises to promote employment" and "all enterprises enter the campus", and at the same time, they also try to "bring people live", show students’ resumes in the live broadcast room and "sell" graduates to employers. Focus on graduates’ job-seeking needs, strengthen employment guidance in all localities, help graduates understand the national employment policy, objectively understand themselves, find a correct position, establish a correct outlook on success, career and employment, and "feel the pulse" for graduates’ job hunting.

  Graduates from key groups, such as poverty-stricken families, low-income families and zero-employment families, are willing to apply for jobs, but some graduates have problems such as lack of confidence and skills in job hunting. The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Finance continue to implement the "Hongzhi Navigation Aid Plan of the Central Special Lottery Public Welfare Fund", and carry out special training on employability for key groups to help them enhance their confidence and enhance their employment competitiveness. At present, a total of 94,000 graduates of 2023 have completed offline training. Focusing on the practical difficulties encountered by graduates in job hunting, many colleges and universities have established a "one-on-one" assistance responsibility system, refined assistance measures, and tailored assistance programs for key group graduates. Through big data technology, Gansu Province has established assistance work accounts according to the employment intentions of different key groups to improve the accuracy of assistance; Beijing Jiaotong University accurately provides assistance according to "one life, one policy" and "one person, one file", dynamically updates the employment situation, and provides timely assistance.

Yangbi, Yunnan and Maduo, Qinghai —— Earthquake relief work has been carried out rapidly.

  Beijing, 22 May: The reporter learned from the Emergency Management Department that at 21: 48 on May 21 and 2: 04 on May 22, earthquakes of magnitude 6.4 and 7.4 occurred in Yangbi County, Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province and maduo county, Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province. After the earthquake, emergency rescue and disaster relief were carried out rapidly. The emergency management department immediately launched the third-level emergency response to the Yangbi earthquake disaster in Yunnan and the second-level emergency response to the Maduo earthquake disaster in Qinghai, continuously dispatched and guided the earthquake relief in Yunnan and Qinghai, and deployed investigation and rescue, earthquake monitoring, secondary disaster prevention and rescue and resettlement for the affected people. The Emergency Management Department and the Seismological Bureau of China sent two working groups to Yunnan and Qinghai to guide and assist local governments in carrying out emergency rescue and disaster relief work.

  Emergency allocation of relief materials. On the 22nd, the Ministry of Finance and the Emergency Management Department urgently allocated 10 million yuan of central natural disaster relief funds to Yunnan Province and Qinghai Province, respectively, to support and help local governments to do a good job in earthquake relief and properly protect the basic livelihood of the affected people. The Emergency Management Department and the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau urgently allocated 5,000 tents, 10,000 folding beds and 20,000 blankets to the earthquake-stricken areas in Yunnan.

  Rescue forces rushed to help in many ways. The Armed Police Force quickly launched the emergency mechanism. As of 19: 00 on the 22nd, more than 300 officers and men of the Armed Police Force fought in the front line of earthquake relief. As of 16: 00 on the 22nd, Yunnan dispatched a national comprehensive fire rescue team with 143 vehicles and 664 people carrying 33 search and rescue dogs and search and rescue equipment to the earthquake zone to rescue 17 trapped and buried people. Qinghai has mobilized 1 heavy rescue team and 3 light rescue teams, including 70 fire engines and 296 commanders and fighters. More than 750 households have been visited and investigated, and more than 3,600 people have been evacuated and transferred. At the same time, the the State Council Earthquake Relief Headquarters deployed to investigate and inspect the infrastructure such as roads, electric power, communications, water conservancy and hidden dangers of geological disasters in the earthquake zone to prevent possible secondary disasters.

  According to the disaster situation in Yangbi County, the Red Cross Society of China and the Red Cross Society of Yunnan Province quickly launched an emergency response. According to the needs of the disaster area, 300 tents, 1,100 family bags and 1,000 jackets were allocated overnight. According to the disaster situation in maduo county, the Red Cross Society of China and the Red Cross Society of Qinghai Province launched an emergency response at the first time, and allocated tents, folding beds, quilts and other relief materials to the disaster area overnight according to the needs of the disaster area.

  According to preliminary verification, some rural drinking water projects in Yangbi County have been damaged, and there is no abnormality in water conservancy projects such as reservoirs and hydropower stations in earthquake-stricken areas in Yunnan and Qinghai provinces. The Ministry of Water Resources will complete the earthquake damage investigation of water conservancy projects in the earthquake zone as soon as possible, and urge and guide local governments to conduct in-depth investigation, analysis and judgment on water conservancy projects in the earthquake zone one by one.

  Agricultural Bank of China Yunnan Branch timely deployed mobile financial service vehicles to reinforce Yangbi Sub-branch. Agricultural Bank of China Yangbi County Sub-branch also opened a "green channel" to allocate 1.2 million yuan for emergency relief funds for civil affairs and other units.

  The Tibetan Boarding School in Huanghe Township, maduo county, not far from the epicenter, is the largest centralized resettlement site in the township, and all the teachers and students in the school have been properly resettled. By 18: 00 on the 22nd, 5,409 people had been relocated in maduo county, and 370 emergency rescue tents had been set up in schools, hospitals, nursing homes and other places.

  (Comprehensive report by our reporters Qiu Chaoyi, Wang Hao, Shen Shaotie, Li Longyi and Jia Fengfeng)

Through the eye of the storm! Internet giants show their magical powers to help foreign trade enterprises tide over the difficulties.

Recently, many platforms, such as JD.COM, Baidu, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan and Tik Tok, have voiced their voices one after another to help foreign trade enterprises "export to domestic sales". At the same time, cross-border payment and logistics enterprises are also taking active actions to respond to the needs of the transformation of foreign trade enterprises.

The platform supports cross-border businesses to "export to domestic sales"

The United States has already "cut the knife" on the parcels from China and Hongkong that were not more than 800 dollars, and the duty-free treatment will be officially terminated from May 2.

"As we all know, the United States is one of the important target markets for China to develop cross-border e-commerce, which means that the cost of cross-border e-commerce will rise and the market competitive advantage will become less obvious. It is a big impact for cross-border e-commerce enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises." Bai Ming, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said frankly in an interview with shanghai securities news.

The reporter interviewed a number of cross-border SMEs and learned that many businesses have adjusted their wait-and-see mood and started to take the initiative to respond.

"Nowadays, many foreign trade enterprises are willing to’ export to domestic sales’. Major platforms and retail enterprises help cross-border businesses to expand the domestic market according to their own advantages such as platforms and traffic, and also provide more choices for these enterprises." Bai Ming said frankly.

Up to now, many platform enterprises such as JD.COM, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, Tik Tok, etc. have expressed their views one after another, giving money, traffic and resources to support foreign trade enterprises to "export to domestic sales".

On April 11th, JD.COM announced the establishment of a special procurement fund of 200 billion yuan, and launched the export-to-domestic support plan.

On April 12, Baidu announced that it will give priority to supporting 1 million enterprises to export to domestic market by using AI technology and platform traffic, and explore the domestic market. Baidu’s love procurement platform will also issue 1 million corporate grants to export enterprises to help open domestic sales channels at a low threshold.

The reporter learned from Ali that Ali International Station has sent thousands of "Little Two" to almost all foreign trade industrial belts in the country, and at the same time launched special actions to fully help small and medium-sized foreign trade businesses that encounter difficulties. On April 15th, Alibaba’s source factory procurement platform 1688 said that foreign trade manufacturers with overstocked inventory would be provided with full custody and help sales services, and the platform would reduce or exempt commissions. Foreign trade manufacturers could also negotiate with the platform on the cooperation mode of inventory underwriting.

At the same time, 1688 provides early repayment service for foreign trade manufacturers who encounter financial difficulties, and provides special credit loans in conjunction with online merchant banks and other financial institutions, focusing on supporting the most affected clothing, textile and light industrial products and enterprises.

Pinduoduo recently launched the "100 billion support" plan, which also increased subsidies for small and medium-sized cross-border businesses. Zhao Jiazhen, executive director and co-CEO of Pinduoduo, said: "We are determined to shoulder the costs and risks of the transformation and development of platform businesses, and we also have sufficient strategic strength to cope with the uncertainty of the external market environment. We will give priority to ensuring the stable development and healthy profits of small and medium-sized manufacturing industries."

On April 16th, Tik Tok Group launched the special support plan for foreign trade excellent products, integrating business resources such as e-commerce and living services, and helping foreign trade merchants to reduce operating costs and expand the domestic market by setting up green channels, special traffic support, commission reduction and fee reduction, and interest-free loans to help turnover.

In addition, Meituan has launched a green channel for transferring foreign trade to domestic sales, taking advantage of its own resources in warehousing, channels and distribution, such as Elephant Supermarket, Meituan Optimization and Meituan Flash Purchase, and fully supporting the businesses of Meituan in terms of business settlement, business support and brand building.

As of the early morning of April 17th, Meituan Flash Shopping has set up a special working group to transfer foreign trade to domestic sales. According to the relevant person in charge, at present, the working group has coordinated the national lightning warehouses, convenience stores and brands to reach a supply chain cooperation alliance, and 335 enterprises have clicked to sign up for cooperation, of which 111 have entered the actual domestic sales docking process.

On April 17th, Tencent launched the "Run-up Plan for the New Journey of Foreign Trade", paving the way for foreign trade enterprises to broaden the domestic and international markets through ten measures, such as opening a green channel, encouraging new businesses, supporting traffic, and offering preferential rates. It is expected that the business ecology such as small programs, WeChat stores and digital offline stores will increase the sales scale of foreign trade enterprises by 100 billion yuan.

Take the initiative to change the industrial chain, enterprises cooperate to meet the challenge

Bai Ming said that it is still difficult to predict the adjustment direction of subsequent tariffs. But what is certain is that the risks and challenges that cross-border e-commerce business is encountering will further affect foreign trade service enterprises and spread to the upstream and downstream of industrial chains such as logistics and cross-border payment.

The shipping market dynamics released by where to go show that the US tariff policy has led to changes in the US-Canada route. Faced with this situation, major shipping companies are rapidly working out route adjustment plans, and part of the ship capacity of the US-Canada route may spill over to the European route (Euro-Mediterranean route) for undertaking.

In an interview with reporters, the head of the international freight department of a courier company admitted that the international freight market has been subject to certain fluctuations recently due to tariff adjustment. The volume of international freight orders, especially those involving cross-border e-commerce exports to the United States, has declined in a short period of time, and many shippers are on the sidelines, suspending shipments or adjusting shipment plans. However, the company is actively communicating with customers, seeking coping strategies, paying attention to market dynamics, adjusting the operation plan in time, and trying its best to reduce the impact of tariff policies on business.

The strategic adjustment of international logistics and the change of freight rate also provide more possibilities for foreign trade enterprises to explore diversified markets. The person in charge of a home textile cross-border e-commerce company from Shenzhen told the reporter that the company’s current delivery to the United States is normal, but the profit of the products has been difficult to guarantee. The company is trying to move its supply chain overseas to meet the tariff challenge, and at the same time, increase the layout of the European market.

Recently, the download rankings of DHgate (Dunhuang Net), Taobao (Taobao) and Alibaba.com (Ali International Station) in the US have risen sharply, which also shows that Americans’ desire to stock up on "Made in China" has not been extinguished by the tariff increase. Some leading foreign trade enterprises also told reporters that the possibility of export price increase to the United States is not ruled out. "If the price of peers increases, we will follow suit."

Yong Chengxiang, president of Dongguan Industry and Trade Development Promotion Association and chairman of Dongguan Foaiwa Arts and Crafts Co., Ltd., said that if we really want to give up the American market, we should go to Europe and Central Asia. According to him, the association has conducted preliminary investigations on other overseas markets, including Australia, and more than 30 foreign trade enterprises have responded.

Prevent involution and accommodate new enterprises with incremental space.

In addition to proposing a 100 billion support plan, the reporter learned that a number of e-commerce platforms, including JD.COM and Ali, have set up special groups for "exporting to domestic sales", and the number of foreign trade enterprises docking is constantly increasing.

The relevant person in charge of JD.COM told the reporter that nearly 3,000 enterprises and businesses have approached JD.COM for cooperation and help since the announcement of the support plan three days ago (as of April 14th). "This number is rising rapidly every day. To this end, JD.COM has also started the selection of hundreds of categories including clothing, shoes and hats, consumer electronics, household appliances, household daily use, luggage and leather goods, and toy musical instruments. " The person in charge revealed.

"In the contact with foreign trade enterprises, we have noticed that many foreign trade enterprises have concentrated on their unfamiliarity with domestic market rules and lack of online operation experience." Several platform leaders gave feedback to reporters.

In response to this pain point, Tmall opened the exclusive channel of the "Blue Star Plan", and "Industry Xiaoer" provided one-to-one guidance for foreign trade enterprises. JD.COM also set up a "7×24-hour" clue collection and feedback team according to the different needs of merchants, and organized a purchasing and marketing team to start the office assistance of the industrial belt.

Bai Ming suggested that the competitive pressure of cross-border e-commerce industry has increased in recent years, and the industry has been constantly shuffled. Foreign trade enterprises are also facing more challenges when they move to China, which requires the concerted efforts of platforms, businesses and policies. At this time, enterprises should strengthen their confidence, not only make good use of the support of e-commerce platform, but also give full play to their advantages and step up research and development. In terms of overseas business, we will further make good use of the overseas warehouse model, strive to increase exploration in efficient logistics and efficient customs clearance, and carry out more diversified overseas layout. While exploring the domestic market and promoting "export to domestic sales", we should also pay special attention to preventing involution competition.

The reporter noted that preventing involution competition has also become a major focus for platform enterprises to support foreign trade manufacturers to "export to domestic sales".

"To expand the domestic market demand, it is necessary to accommodate new foreign trade enterprises with incremental space instead of stock space." Bai Ming said, "At present, the competition in the domestic market is already fierce. Cross-border e-commerce enterprises’ moving to the domestic market is not a trade-off competition, but should give full play to their own advantages, step up research and development, open up the blue ocean market, and bring more incremental consumption."

At the same time, he suggested that in terms of policy measures, we can guide the support policies such as "trade-in" to give more support to enterprises that "export to domestic sales" and form an increase in consumption, rather than squeezing the domestic market, so as to form a more benign market structure.

Yancheng Volvo XC90 price reduction news, discount 174,900! Sufficient car

[Autohome Yancheng Discount Promotion Channel] Good news! In this beautiful city of Yancheng, a striking promotion is underway. As a leader in the luxury SUV market, the XC90 has shown unprecedented benefits in the Yancheng area. At present, the maximum discount has reached an amazing 174,900 yuan, and the minimum starting price has been adjusted to a very competitive 472,000 yuan. If you want to seize this rare car purchase opportunity, don’t miss it. Click "Chatti Car Price" in the quotation form now to make your dream car a reality at a lower price. Act quickly and let the discount be your help to choose the XC90!

盐城沃尔沃XC90降价消息,优惠17.49万!现车充足

The Volvo XC90 catches the eye with its refined and powerful exterior design. On the front, it uses the classic Thor’s Hammer headlights, combined with the straight waterfall-style air intake grille, to present a visual effect of elegance and power. The body lines are smooth, showing the simple aesthetics of Nordic design. The overall style is atmospheric and noble, highlighting the sense of luxury and sports. No matter which angle you look at, the XC90 is a very recognizable luxury SUV.

盐城沃尔沃XC90降价消息,优惠17.49万!现车充足

The Volvo XC90 is sumptuous in elegant body proportions, with body dimensions of 4953mm long, 1958 mm wide and 1778mm high, creating a sense of sedate space. The 2984mm wheelbase ensures generous interior space and excellent driving stability. The side lines are smooth and powerful, and the tire size is 275/45 R20. With carefully designed rims, it not only enhances the driver’s visual enjoyment, but also provides a solid grip for driving.

盐城沃尔沃XC90降价消息,优惠17.49万!现车充足

The interior design of the Volvo XC90 adheres to the style of Nordic luxury, with attention to detail and comfort. In the driver’s seat area, the steering wheel is made of leather with excellent texture, providing a good grip. It can be manually adjusted up and down + front and rear to suit the needs of different drivers. The central 9-inch central control screen is clear and easy to operate. It integrates multiple functions such as multimedia system, navigation, phone and air conditioning. It supports automatic speech recognition and provides convenient information exchange for drivers.

In terms of seats, the XC90 is made of high-grade leather to provide passengers with excellent touch and support. The main and passenger seats support 4-way adjustment of front and rear, backrest, height and height, as well as 2-way adjustment of waist support to ensure the comfort of long-distance driving. The front seats are also equipped with heating function to keep the driver warm in cold seasons. In addition, the driver’s seat also has a power seat memory function to provide personalized space settings.

As for convenience, the XC90 is equipped with two USB ports and two Type-C ports in the front row to meet passengers’ multimedia and charging needs. The rear seats support proportional reclining, providing flexible storage and versatility. Together, these configurations create an interior environment that is both luxurious and functional.

盐城沃尔沃XC90降价消息,优惠17.49万!现车充足

The Volvo XC90 is powered by a 2.0T turbocharged engine with a power output of 250 horsepower and a maximum torque of 350 N. m. This engine is paired with an 8-speed automatic transmission to provide smooth power transmission and efficient performance.

Summing up the owner’s point of view, he is full of praise for the exterior design of the Volvo XC90, especially the unique design of the front and the eye-catching LED daytime running lights, which add a different kind of aura to this luxury SUV. These elements not only won his personal favor, but also will attract other consumers seeking individuality and practicality. Overall, the Volvo XC90 has established a solid position in the hearts of many owners with its domineering appearance and excellent design details.

Tang De film and television 400 million will be accepted by Shenzhen Stock Exchange; The Legend of Searching for Dragons is synchronized with North America in mainland China.

01

Tony Leung Chiu Wai and Andy Lau cooperated in the new film Goldfinger after 18 years.

According to Hong Kong media reports, Tony Leung Chiu Wai and Andy Lau will cooperate again after 18 years, and will star in Infernal Affairs director Zhuang Wenqiang’s new film Goldfinger. The film Kasi is luxurious, co-starring Charlene Choi, Yam Tat-wah, Fang Zhongxin, Jiang Haowen and Qian Jiale. 

 

Focusing on the Hong Kong listed company Jianing Group in the 1980s, the film tells the story of its rise to liquidation in just a few years, and finally it was pursued by the Independent Commission Against Corruption for 15 years, which caused a sensation all over the world.

 

In fact, there was news of the film Goldfinger in October last year. At that time, it was reported that it starred Tony Leung Chiu Wai and Nicholas Tse, and it was an action film against corruption. However, Nicholas Tse was not seen in the latest lineup. It is reported that the film was invested by Emperor Film, and it is alleged that it has been approved by the mainland. It is expected to start shooting this year, and the film production fee is reported to be 200 million yuan.

02

The Legend of Searching for Dragons is synchronized with North America in mainland China.

Disney’s first animated feature film "The Legend of Searching for Dragons" this year announced that the mainland will set a file on March 5 to synchronize with North America. The film is the latest work of Frozen’s Zootopia gold medal team, and the Chinese version of the protagonist is dubbed by Zhao Liying.

03

Tang De film and television 413 million will be accepted by Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Tang De Film and Television announced on the evening of February 19th that it received the Notice on Accepting the Application Documents of Zhejiang Tang De Film and Television Co., Ltd. to Issue Stocks to Specific Objects issued by Shenzhen Stock Exchange on February 19th, 2021. Shenzhen Stock Exchange checked the prospectus and related application documents submitted by the company for issuing shares to specific targets, and decided to accept the application documents.

 

Tang De’s income has been reduced from the initial 600 million to no more than 413 million.

04

The new drama "Eye of the Storm" with the theme of national security was finalized on February 23rd.

 

The national security theme contemporary urban anti-espionage drama "Eye of the Storm" starring Yang Mi and Vin is scheduled to be broadcast on Zhejiang Satellite TV and Oriental TV at 19:30 every day from February 23rd. Iqiyi and Tencent video members will update 2 episodes every Sunday to Friday at 22: 00, and 1 episode on Saturday at 22: 00.

 

The drama tells the story of the national security personnel, represented by Quiet and Ma Shang, who persist in the justice in their hearts regardless of obstacles, and strive to detect cases of technology theft and protect the country’s rare resources from being smuggled and traded by foreign forces.

05

The fire of Marvel Comics’s new drama "Vision of Wanda" caused Disney+ to go down.

Magic Vision of Wanda was very popular after Disney+ was released, which even led to the downtime of this streaming service on Friday. Downdetector, a website that tracks Internet service downtime reports, said Disney+ experienced a short downtime in the early hours of Friday, at about the same time as the latest episode of Vision Wanda premiered. Many Disney+ users went to major social media to express their dissatisfaction.

06

The sequel to Our Distance from Evil started shooting this year.

Taiwanese media reported that in 2019, the high-profile drama series "The Distance between Us and Evil" officially opened a sequel, and the second part will be a brand-new card and story, which will start shooting before the end of this year. Screenwriter Lu Yuyuan said that she spent more than a year doing field research, and now she is writing a script. Her roles include legislators, prosecutors, middle school teachers and social workers.

 

"Our Distance from Evil" was broadcast in Taiwan Province in March 2019, and then Tencent video was introduced. The first film starred Alyssa Chia, Wen Shenghao and Wu Kangren, and Alyssa Chia won the first golden bell in his life with this drama.

China’s crime-themed film and television dramas have caught fire abroad, and If Snails Have Love, they are wildly sought after.

[Compiled/Observer Network Gao Xueying] According to the English version of the Global Times reported on the 24th, the China TV series "If Snails Have Love" (hereinafter referred to as "Snails") which is being broadcasted recently has gone abroad!

If Snails Have Love is a crime TV series starring Wang Kai and Olivia, which is adapted from Ding Mo’s novel of the same name. Ding Mo’s novels of the same type, Please Close Your Eyes When He Comes, and Beauty Trapped, have also been adapted into TV series and broadcast, which are also wildly sought after by overseas fans.

These crime-themed TV dramas adapted from novels have received mixed reviews in China.

Unexpectedly, on the only video websites in the world (viki.com and DramaFever) that provide subtitles in different languages for China’s film and television works, the scores of these works are astonishingly high, all of which are above 9.7.

Douban score is only 5.4, but the score on viki is full …

The enthusiasm of foreign fans is surprising. After a three-week business trip, a 26-year-old Indonesian girl named Nina Amelia turned on her laptop and watched six episodes of Snail in one breath …

Under viki’s "Snail" page, it is a variety of 10 points:

You will never regret watching this play! Super fun and exciting! I will keep chasing it!

The plot is smooth and progressive. I hope this drama is as interesting as "Please Close Your Eyes When He Comes" and reveals the secret in a romantic atmosphere.

Push this play hard! Not only about love, but also many action scenes and interesting suspense plots.

Filipino April Manaloto specially drew a set of cartoons for the characters in the play;

It is more convenient for foreigners in Beijing to follow the drama and sneak a peek at it in the office.

Clark, a 32-year-old from South Africa, is currently a visiting professor at a Korean university. She said that with the popularity of China’s crime film and television dramas abroad, people’s voice for multilingual subtitles is getting higher and higher: "People have always had demand for film and television dramas from different countries, but their interest in China’s film and television dramas has indeed increased significantly."

Foreign fans have actually broken through the cultural barriers to catch up with China’s crime-themed TV dramas, and even their enthusiasm for chasing dramas is higher than that of Chinese. Why?

Some are attracted by the plot and the actors’ performances:

Cherie, 26, from the United States, has been chasing China’s crime movies and TV plays for several years, including Close Your Eyes When He Comes, which is adapted from Ding Mo’s novel of the same name.

Because of her good impression of "Please Close Your Eyes When He Comes", she followed up Snail, which is also an adaptation of Ding Mo’s novel, and found that this TV series was different from what she had seen since she was a child:

"At first, its rhythm is very slow, but slowly, you will find that the irrelevant clues have been strung together before, and then a bigger and more evil plot begins to unfold.

Compared with American TV series, this drama embodies more reality and emotion."

Martin, 36, has also seen Snail and Please Close Your Eyes When He Comes. He thinks that the important features that distinguish these two dramas from other Asian TV dramas are their scripts and actors’ performances:

"The script is very good, giving the female characters words and deeds that match their age.Unlike other Asian TV dramas, women are not portrayed as a little girl..

"The actors’ performances are natural, and all their actions are meaningful, andThe performance is not as exaggerated as most taiwanese drama.. "

There are purely for idolize:

Clark, the Korean visiting professor mentioned above, has another identity: the founder of Wang Kai’s overseas fan group "Wang Kai International (WKI)".

As a qualified fan, any work of Kaikai Wang must be pursued!

Therefore, Wang Kai is Clark’s reason for watching Snail: "Our King Kaikai’s acting skills are excellent, and Ji Bai he plays is a living person, not just a role."

Myriam Dunn Cavelty from Switzerland said that she had also rushed to Wang Kai to watch Snail. Who knows that she accidentally got a new "husband": actor Yu Heng who plays Zhao Han:

"He is the perfect husband candidate! Sincere and enthusiastic, but also deeply in love with female number two ~ "

Sabrina, who is in her thirties, works in a health care institution in the United States and is a fan of Wallace Huo and Wang Kai.

She said that she watched "Please close your eyes when he comes" and "Snail" solely for licking the screen. No matter what the male gods performed, she watched them!

And to study cultural differences:

Martin likes to compare crime movies and TV plays in different countries. He compares China’s crime movies and TV plays with his two favorite works, Italian Inspector Montalbano and Swedish Wallander.

Inspector Montabano (left) and Vilander.

He believes that in Swedish film and television dramas, Swedish investigation is particularly "monotonous, serious and organized"; Italy is just the opposite: very relaxed, even a little naughty, always trying to take advantage of the loopholes in the law to find a shortcut to handling cases.

What about China? Chinese pays great attention to teamwork and position when handling cases, which is reflected in Close Your Eyes When He Comes and Snail.

Martin thinks that China’s method is very inspiring and can inspire people to achieve their goals.

Martin said: "China film and television dramas have made great progress, and I found that their scripts and actors’ acting skills are becoming more and more mature."

This article is an exclusive manuscript of Observer. The content of the article is purely the author’s personal opinion, and does not represent the platform’s view. It shall not be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal responsibility will be investigated. Pay attention to the observer network WeChat guanchacn and read interesting articles every day.

Urban and rural construction: how to strengthen the protection and inheritance of historical culture

Villagers hang corn in the alley of Xinyegu Village, Daciyan Town, Jiande, Zhejiang Province. Xinhua news agency

Tourists drink coffee in a cafe in Lujia Village, Nanzhang Town, Jingxing County, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province. Xinhua news agency

  In Guowu Village, Labu Township, Chengduo County, Yushu Prefecture, Qinghai Province, Nima (left) plans to help restore the traditional buildings of villagers’ homes. Xinhua news agency

Artists perform marionettes in Nanhou Street, a historical and cultural block of Sanfangqixiang, Fuzhou, Fujian. Xinhua news agency

  History is the carrier of culture, and culture is the blood of history. After five thousand years of vicissitudes, Chinese civilization has always come down in one continuous line, which is precisely because the historical and cultural heritage of splendid civilization has a long history and is surging forward.

  "Literary movement is linked with national movement, and cultural context is linked with national vein". For a long time, China’s history and culture have been preserved in various ways in urban and rural areas, precipitated into unique memories and signs, and played an irreplaceable role in each period. A few days ago, the general offices of the General Office of the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council issued the Opinions on Strengthening the Protection and Inheritance of Historical Culture in Urban and Rural Construction (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions), which clearly proposed to establish an urban and rural historical and cultural protection and inheritance system with scientific classification, strong protection and effective management, which pointed out the direction and provided guidance for the next step.

  Nowadays, when old traditions meet new ideas and ancient buildings meet new technologies, how to further strengthen the protection and inheritance of historical and cultural heritage and continue to inherit the historical context and cultural foundation has become a brand-new topic that the whole society has to face.

  1. "Non-legacy+tourism" makes ancient villages "live"

  ● Case: Ancient Cinnamomum camphora forest, blue bricks and black tiles, deep courtyard, hookah curling … … During the National Day holiday this year, Diaoyuan Ancient Village, located in Xingqiao Town, Jizhou District, Ji ‘an, Jiangxi Province, became the travel destination of Li Juan, a freshman of Nanchang University, and his roommates.

  Diaoyuan Ancient Village is an ancient village with a history of more than 1100 years. Walking into the village, the patchwork of residential shrines, mottled old wind and fire walls, winding alleys and other landscapes all reveal strong humanistic colors. "I have long heard that the ancient fishing village is beautiful, but I didn’t feel what ‘ A blue brick and black tile ink painting ’ 。” Li Juan said.

  It is understood that in recent years, after the establishment of the new village, the ancient village of Diaoyuan has shown a trend of "hollowing out", leaving only a few families. In order to solve the problem of protection and rational utilization of hollow villages and ancient buildings, Jizhou District has introduced high-quality planning from professional teams, and transformed and upgraded the entrance experience area, post road experience area, future village experimental field, ancient village ancient rhyme area, ancient village source area and ancient village merchant area, so that traditional ancient villages can be truly "alive".

  In recent years, in the domestic tourism market, ancient village tourism, which can enjoy both natural beauty and historical and cultural charm, has been favored by more and more "donkey friends".

  "In the context of consumption upgrading and limited travel abroad, the main distribution areas of ancient villages and towns in China, such as Jiangxi and Anhui, have ushered in a golden opportunity period for the development of cultural tourism." Guo Xiaoguang, director of the Industrial Development Department of the Special Committee of Ancient Villages and Towns of China Cultural Relics Society, said, however, some ancient villages, as cultural relics, have strict standards in planning, development, commercial operation and so on, which are far higher than those of ordinary cultural tourism projects. How to play a good card of the integration of Zhang Wen and Lu on the premise of cultural relics protection has become a new topic for all localities, especially in the resource-rich areas of ancient villages and towns.

  Jingxian County, Xuancheng, Anhui Province, located in the south of Anhui Province, is a tourist destination with 25 ancient villages and towns listed in the list of traditional Chinese villages. In recent years, with the spread of new media such as short videos, the number of tourists and tourism income here have been rising year after year, and the living standards of local residents have been significantly improved.

  "Although tourism resources are sufficient, the legal system related to ancient villages and towns is still not perfect, and it is difficult to carry out protection work in ancient villages and towns." The relevant person in charge of the Jingxian Cultural Relics Bureau said that not only is the pressure on the protection of ancient buildings huge, but the contradiction between the villagers’ housing needs and the protection of ancient buildings is prominent because the ancient buildings cannot meet the living standards of modern people in hardware conditions.

  "Although the cultural tourism of ancient villages has achieved certain results, problems such as the disappearance of ancient villages are equally prominent. After the reform and opening up, the speed of destruction and extinction of ancient villages in China has accelerated. " The relevant person in charge of the Prospective Industry Research Institute said that although the country is gradually increasing the statutory protection of famous historical and cultural cities, towns and villages, various localities still face many difficulties in implementing protection, repair and activation.

  In this regard, the Opinions clearly pointed out that living heritages such as cities, villages and towns should be the main body and rely on, and various historical and cultural heritages such as historical and cultural cities, towns and villages (traditional villages), blocks and historical buildings, industrial heritage, agricultural cultural heritage and intangible cultural heritage should be taken as an organic whole to form a protection and inheritance system.

  The data shows that up to now, China has 137 national historical and cultural cities and 190 provincial historical and cultural cities. At the same time, China has also announced 312 famous historical and cultural towns in China, 487 famous historical and cultural villages in China and 6819 traditional villages in China, forming the largest agricultural civilization heritage group in the world so far.

  "Historical and cultural cities, towns and villages, including historical blocks and historical buildings, are important carriers of production and life, and the protection and inheritance work is closely related to the daily life of ordinary people." Su Yunshan, director of the Department of Building Energy Conservation and Science and Technology of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that it is necessary to give full play to the comprehensive value of cultural heritage, integrate scattered historical and cultural resources, and let the masses ‘ Daily use without feeling ’ Feel the charm of culture; It is also necessary to develop cultural tourism and creative industries, so that ordinary people can get tangible benefits and have more sense of gain.

  2. "Development+Protection" of modern architecture should be paid attention to.

  ● Cases: Bund complex, Xujiahui Catholic Church, Jing ‘an Temple … … Shanghai is one of the most prosperous cities in China and the birthplace and development center of modern architectural culture in China.

  However, in the process of urban development, Shanghai has a slow understanding of the protection of architectural cultural heritage. After nearly 30 years of exploration, Shanghai has carried out exploratory experiments in repairing, adding, shifting, inserting and rebuilding, style protection, renewal, regeneration and utilization of historical buildings, and formed a mechanism and method for protecting architectural cultural heritage that basically conforms to the characteristics and reality of Shanghai’s historical buildings.

  History and culture are the soul of a city. How to deal with the relationship between urban reconstruction and development and the protection and utilization of historical and cultural heritage is an important issue facing urban development in China.

  "The nearly 23 million square meters of Lane House built from the end of 19th century to 1930s is the most distinctive architectural type in Shanghai, and it is a typical blend of Chinese and Western architectural forms and lifestyles." Zheng Shiling, an academician of China Academy of Sciences and a professor of college of architecture and urban planning, pointed out that from 1980s to the mid-1990s, "change" and "new" became synonymous with urban development, and simply aimed at "new" and "change", lacking institutional guarantee in the aspects of legal system, management and operation.

  According to the data, up to now, about two-thirds of the 45 million square meters of historical buildings left over from Shanghai’s history no longer exist, and less than 1,000 of the 9,214 articles counted in 1949 are left.

  However, with the increasing awareness of the inheritance and protection of historical and cultural heritage, great achievements have been made in the protection of architectural cultural heritage in Shanghai since 2002, and a suitable protection model for Shanghai has also been preliminarily explored, that is, insisting on the combination of use and protection and protecting in use. Zheng Shiling said that a number of excellent examples have emerged by implanting various functions in historical buildings, such as using historical office, residential and public buildings as clubs and schools, and using industrial architectural heritage as creative centers, residences, hotels and theaters.

  "The" Opinions "clearly stated that it is necessary to establish an urban and rural historical and cultural protection and inheritance system with scientific classification, strong protection and effective management." Yang Baojun, chief economist of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, pointed out that this requires us to protect not only single buildings, but also streets and towns, as well as historical sites, natural landscapes, humanistic environment and intangible cultural heritage.

  In addition, in the past historical and cultural protection work, there was a tendency to attach importance to ancient times and despise modern times, and ancient China and modern China could not be truly, stereoscopically and comprehensively displayed. In view of this problem, the Opinions put forward that we should not only protect the ancient heritage of China, but also protect the important achievements of modern and contemporary construction.

  "It is necessary to systematically protect the historical and cultural heritage of each period, comprehensively show the ancient civilization and modern history, especially the glorious course of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the founding of New China, and the reform and opening up, and tell the story of China vividly and three-dimensionally." Yang Baojun said.

  Strict demolition management is the key to the protection and inheritance of urban and rural history and culture. In this regard, the "Opinions" clearly stated that "it is forbidden to demolish large buildings, demolish the real ones, and confuse the fake ones with the real ones in urban renewal" and "effectively protect the existing buildings that can reflect the specific development stage of the city, reflect important historical events, and condense the emotional memory of the public". These measures will have a far-reaching impact on the protection and inheritance of historical culture.

  3. "Science and technology+inheritance" creates a new way to protect cultural heritage.

  ● Case: Recently, the 2021 Cultural Heritage Digital UAV Close to Photogrammetry Competition was officially launched. The activity collected and selected the fine model of cultural heritage presented by UAV close to photogrammetry technology online, aiming at promoting the digital protection of chinese heritage, exploring new methods and paths of "three-dimensional real scene" construction, and promoting China’s excellent history and culture.

  The surveying and mapping objects of the works collected in this competition are China’s traditional material and cultural heritage, including ancient sites, ancient buildings, ancient villages, cave temples, stone carvings, murals, important modern historical sites or representative buildings, and historical and cultural cities with outstanding value in architectural style, distribution or combination with environmental scenery.

  It is understood that "close to photogrammetry" is a brand-new technology put forward by the team of Academician Zhang Zuxun of Wuhan University to meet the demand of fine surveying in surveying and mapping industry. It was first applied to geological survey and monitoring and early warning, taking the "face" of an object as the object of photography, obtaining ultra-high resolution images through close photography, and finely extracting geographic information.

  "UAV close to photogrammetry technology can record ancient buildings and cultural sites at high speed and in all directions, which can not only improve the efficiency of data collection of cultural heritage surveying and mapping, but also greatly reduce the safety risks during operation." The relevant person in charge of DJI Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. said that with this technology, cultural relics protection workers can easily restore the true face of ancient buildings and provide data support for cultural relics protection and research.

  Nowadays, with the development of science and technology, more and more new technologies are presented in different forms in the process of historical and cultural protection and inheritance, and the "three-dimensional laser scanning technology" with the function of automatically obtaining data is one of them.

  According to industry experts, 3D laser scanning technology is a new measurement technology, which can obtain 3D point cloud data information in the object space without touching the object, avoiding unnecessary damage caused by human contact and satisfying the timeliness of data recording in cultural heritage protection. Depending on the selected equipment, the ranging can reach tens of meters and hundreds of meters. For some immovable material and cultural heritage with a large area, scanning can be completed at a position far away from the object, and the obtained data can also reach the accuracy of millimeter level.

  It is reported that three-dimensional laser scanning technology is currently being applied to the information scanning of some ancient buildings in cities, and the data obtained by it is flexible and applicable. Combined with the new technology of the Internet, the "new" dissemination of cultural heritage can be realized. Experts said that this will help to change the single display form such as traditional text reading to a more interactive, convenient and disseminated publicity display mode, so that more young people can pay attention to historical and cultural heritage and develop a good habit of actively protecting them.

  "The real protection and inheritance of cultural heritage must be a social and national activity. With the rapid development of social networks and short video platforms, relevant departments should accelerate the establishment of a cultural heritage protection and inheritance system for the public." Dong Wei, a member of the Academic Committee of Planning for Famous Historical and Cultural Cities in urban planning society of china and a professor at the School of Architecture of Southeast University, said that in the digital age, only by popularizing the knowledge of cultural heritage protection to the greatest extent can the public really participate in the protection and inheritance, continue the historical context, create a new way of heritage protection in the digital age, and promote the high-quality development of urban and rural construction.

  (Reporter Qian Qian)

Sample and blind box, offline beauty to find a new password for traffic

Intern reporter | Zhong Rui Editor | Han Lu
How long has it been since you bought makeup and skin care products offline?
Girls who have just paid the last payment of the Double Eleven, I am afraid that one year’s beauty expenses will be dedicated to the online.
Under the background of the fatigue of offline sales in the beauty industry, many traditional cosmetics franchise stores are struggling to operate by discounts, while the new beauty collection store ONLY WRITE has expanded strongly with the blessing of tens of millions of capital.
Recently, ONLY WRITE, a digital mass beauty retail chain brand, announced the completion of 45 million yuan A round investment, which was exclusively invested by well-known industrial funds, and Yunmu Capital served as the exclusive financial advisor. It is reported that this round of financing is mainly used for store expansion and brand building.
According to public information, the "ONLY WRITE" brand belongs to Hangzhou Dushou Brand Management Co., Ltd., which was founded in 2019. Founder Zhou Jianlei is also the founder of the chain cosmetics franchise store "Orange Little Orange".
In March 2020, the ONLY WRITE brand was born.Up to now, 29 stores have been opened, covering 15 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government.In related reports, Zhou Jianlei revealed that the brand is planning to open 500 stores in three years, and plans to lay out 100 stores in 2021.
01
"Being young doesn’t mean being young."
In May, 2020, ONLY WRITE, regarded by Zhou Jianlei as the first real company, opened in Wanda, Yinzhou, Ningbo, with a turnover of 470,000 in just three days. "Not only is the business good, but what surprises us even more is that many online celebrity come to visit the store to punch in." Zhou Jianlei said in an interview with the media.
The success of the first store boosted Zhou Jianlei’s confidence. He assigned the management of Orange Little Orange to the vice president and went all out to do ONLY WRITE. According to its disclosure,Now ONLY WRITE’s new store has opened, and it can basically achieve sales of over one million in three days.
The slogan of ONLY WRITE is-being young doesn’t mean being young. "Young" ONLY WRITE, the team behind it is not young.
Zhou Jianlei’s team has been deeply involved in the beauty retail industry for more than 10 years and accumulated extremely strong industry resources. Another large cosmetics chain store, Orange Little Orange, founded by Zhou Jianlei has more than 280 franchise stores nationwide.
In his view, consolidating the underlying facilities of brand development can ensure the smooth development of the brand in the future. The rapid rise of ONLY WRITE benefits from the strong supply chain foundation of orange and small orange.The mode of "factory direct supply" is basically adopted for small oranges.On the one hand, ensure the "genuine" output and establish a stable supply chain system; On the other hand, it is also to save the "middleman" link and provide consumers with greater benefits.
On the brand,ONLY WRITE has reached cooperation with more than 500 brands, providing more than 15,000 SKUs.Whether it’s domestic products such as Tangduo, VNK, Susie Su, Ke Laqi, or overseas declining cities of trendy cosmetics, FANTYBEAUTY, COLORPOP, or international brands such as YSL, Armani, TF, DIOR, Estee Lauder, etc. are its partners.
02
Full link digital operation
From operating a small orange shop to laying out a "new species" ONLY WRITE, Zhou Jianlei’s team has been trying to break the thinking inertia of "no promotion, no sales" and try a digital operation mode.
The shopping mode of ONLY WRITE isGo to BA (shopping guide), 100% scan code to place an order, and the product model is front store and back warehouse, innovative combination.In order to let consumers buy affordable and effective beauty and skin care products and enhance the offline experience of beauty retail.
In the ONLY WRITE store, every product has a barcode. Consumers can pay attention to ONLY WRITE WeChat official account and click the "scan code to buy" button to buy more. This move not only realizes consumers’ independent decision-making shopping, but also leads customers into private domain traffic and realizes online sales transformation.
Zhou Jianlei said that the first purpose of consumers entering shopping centers is not shopping, but eating and watching movies. Generally speaking, consumers will stroll into the store to kill the fragmentation time caused by waiting. "Only when they are not disturbed, consumers will not have a withdrawal after entering the store.Scanning the code to buy can satisfy their immediate shopping desire.. "
Besides,ONLY WRITE makes full use of big data for accurate selection.. The products that were first put on the shelves were selected by the team through a series of screening processes after referring to the sales data of major online platforms. Whether this batch of products can be left depends on the sales data within two months after being put on the shelves. In ONLY WRITE, the speed of product innovation and refresh is very fast, which lasts for two months. Products with good data performance are left by default, and those with poor performance are optimized for removal.
03
Revitalize the huge private domain traffic
"Every store is a high-quality traffic entrance."
In Zhou Jianlei’s view, offline beauty shops, in any way, have obvious disadvantages compared with online ones only in terms of transaction efficiency itself. Under the background of new retail, in order to get through online and offline, offline customers must be revitalized and extended to online.
Since the first store, ONLY WRITE has been systematically building a private flow pool for beauty retail. A series of measures such as reshaping retail scenes, promoting supply chain reform, and implementing code scanning orders have followed the "From attracting customers to the store, reaching the first transaction, to reducing costs and improving efficiency, private domain precipitation is finally formed."A set of logic.
According to Zhou Jianlei, taking the shopping mall where ONLY WRITE Ningbo Yinzhou Store is located as an example, the daily passenger flow exceeds 40,000, the number of people entering the store in Japan exceeds 600, and the number of people settling in the private sector in Japan exceeds 300. If we can increase the speed of opening stores, expand the number of stores by 100 times, and ensure the quality and efficiency of operation, then the number of private domain deposits of brands can reach more than 10 million per year.
Such a huge private domain volume has become another online "cash pool" of ONLY WRITE.
For this reason, ONLY WRITE adopts the mode of specialized personnel operation, and uses the existing community scale to customize community-specific products to many well-known suppliers through C2M reverse customization strategy. With this operating model, private domain sales have accounted for 15% of the total sales of ONLY WRITE, and continue to grow.
04
Online celebrity beauty cosmetics, where is the way?
Beauty collection store, ONLY WRITE is not unique.
From the destruction of HARMAY in 2017 to the rapid rise of ONLY WRITE, WOW COLOUR and THE COLORIST in 2020, the beauty collection shop has become unique to a hundred schools of thought, and the degree of competition is self-evident.
Unlike the traditional beauty collection store, it is different from the market.New beauty collection stores can often rely on capital to quickly sprint.From shopping malls to consumers to capital, they all show great enthusiasm for "upstarts".
At first, Huamei quickly got out of the circle with "sample economy", and successors such as ONLY WRITE also used big-name samples as traffic promoters. In addition, ONLY WRITE’s original 99 yuan makeup blind box has also stimulated the market’s enthusiasm for beauty collection stores.
However, with more and more homogeneous brands entering the market, samples and blind boxes are no longer a long-term solution as drainage means. The sample supply chain of beauty collection shops without brand authorization is not stable, and the sales of blind box makeup will tend to be rational after being popular. Maybe,The core competitiveness of offline beauty collection stores will also return to "experience".
Under the new format, cosmetics stores are no longer just a place to display goods. How to attract consumers into stores is still a technical job.
Source of the title map: OnlyWrite writes Weibo alone
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